What is The Next Scorer betting?
The “Next Scorer” bet is a type of wager where you predict which player will score the next goal in a game, typically in sports like football (soccer). This bet is often available during live matches, adding excitement and the potential for quick returns as the game unfolds.
Bettors can place a wager on any player from either team to be the next to score, or, in some cases, they can bet on no more goals being scored if they think the game will end without additional goals.
Here’s how it generally works:
- Timing and Live Betting: The odds change frequently based on the game’s dynamics (e.g., player form, recent substitutions, or the current scoreline).
- Potential for Strategy: Bettors might analyze players’ scoring records, team tactics, or substitutions to place a more informed bet.
- Risk and Reward: Because predicting a single scorer in a game has a lower probability than betting on an overall team score, the odds can often be attractive, especially for players who are not the main strikers.
It’s popular with fans looking for a dynamic, moment-to-moment experience, as it requires following the game closely to make the most of real-time events and odds shifts.
Example scenario
Let’s imagine Liverpool and Chelsea are playing a match, and the score is currently 1-1. Here’s how a “Next Scorer” bet might look during the game:
Scenario
- Game Time: 65th minute
- Score: Liverpool 1 – 1 Chelsea
Next Scorer Odds:
- Mohamed Salah (Liverpool): 4.0
- Darwin Núñez (Liverpool): 5.5
- Raheem Sterling (Chelsea): 6.0
- Nicolas Jackson (Chelsea): 7.0
- Own Goal: 25.0
- No Next Goal (if you think the game will end 1-1): 3.5
Example Bets:
- If you bet €10 on Mohamed Salah to be the next scorer: If Salah scores next, you would win €40 (10 x 4.0).
- If you bet €10 on Nicolas Jackson: If Jackson scores next, you would win €70 (10 x 7.0).
- If you think the game will end without any more goals: Betting €10 on “No Next Goal” at odds of 3.5 would win €35 if the game finishes 1-1.
Strategy
- Team Form and Player Positions: If Liverpool is playing aggressively and Mohamed Salah has been getting chances, you might lean towards him as the next scorer.
- Substitutions and Fresh Players: If Chelsea recently brought in a fresh striker like Nicolas Jackson, he might be more likely to score given his energy against a tired defense.
- Game Flow and Tactics: Observing which team has more possession or creating more chances can also help inform your decision.
This type of bet adds excitement to each moment as every attack or player substitution could directly impact your chances of winning.
Interesting stats about “Next Scorer” betting
- Higher Odds for Defenders and Midfielders: On average, odds for defenders and midfielders to score the next goal are significantly higher, often in the range of 15.0 or more. This reflects the lower probability of these players scoring compared to strikers but can offer value when betting on defenders who participate in set pieces or midfielders who frequently shoot from distance.
- Impact of Star Players: Studies show that popular players, like star forwards (e.g., Mohamed Salah for Liverpool or Erling Haaland for Manchester City), have their “Next Scorer” odds more frequently bet on, sometimes lowering the odds due to high demand. For example, a top striker could have odds around 3.5 to 5.0 to score next, while less popular players on the same team might have higher odds despite similar form.
- Influence of Game Progression: In matches with tight scorelines (such as 1-1 or 0-0), betting volume on the “Next Scorer” market tends to increase after the 60th minute. This rise correlates with a higher likelihood of critical goals being scored late in the game, especially in leagues like the English Premier League, where nearly 20-30% of goals are scored in the last 15 minutes.
